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Breaking into the world’s most-visited art institution in broad daylight, grabbing eight pieces of priceless Napoleonic jewellery and disappearing into Paris traffic on humble scooters may seem like the boldest of crimes, carried out for global fame and ensuing movie adaptations.

Experts who observe patterns in global cultural theft, however, see the recent robbery at the Louvre as a more practical matter: the latest in a string of smash-and-grab thefts centered more on the monetary worth of valuable gems or metals than the artifacts’ significance, perpetuating a trend that has appeared over the last ten years in Germany, the UK and the US. The location, they suggest, would have been of secondary concern to the criminals.

“One might wonder why criminals who want to steal expensive jewellery are entering a globally renowned museum rather than a luxury jewelry store,” stated Christopher A Marinello. “It's straightforward: it’s because these days a Cartier store is more secure.”

A series of violent jewellery shop thefts mean that many stores have beefed up their protection in the past few years, with armed guards on their locations and wares no longer kept on display overnight. Cultural institutions, meanwhile, look vulnerable, in part because of the in-built factor of being public-facing institutions in historic buildings, and partly the financial situation in many developed nations.

“After the pandemic, authorities across the globe have reduced spending on police and the arts funding,” noted Marinello. “If thieves can get into the Louvre, it shows how vulnerable our institutions have become. This is a difficult time to be a museum.”

The robbery of the items – including jewelry pieces made up of eight sapphires and hundreds of gems, the tiara of a historical figure featuring thousands of diamonds and a extremely expensive crown once owned by Napoleon III’s wife that the robbers left by the roadside on their way out – has naturally drawn comparisons with the historical theft of the Mona Lisa from the same museum, performed by the Italian handyman the thief.

Better comparisons may be the recent theft of jewellery from a German institution worth over millions, the theft of a multi-million pound gold toilet from a UK landmark the that year, the recent heist of a valuable item from a European museum or even a series of thefts of sports memorabilia from American institutions.

“It's a clear trend here,” said Marinello. “Break in, take items, and dismantle them as quickly as possible.”

If the artefacts were to remain intact, experts say, the thieves would find it hard to sell them. “There’s no way to trade something as recognizable as the Louvre’s jewels on the legal marketplace”, said Lynda Albertson of the a relevant organization.

“They are too well-known, especially given the Ministry of Culture has released images of the items. Even a private collector or an sales venue would want to see paperwork confirming legal possession before touching such striking pieces.”

In the past, museums were often hesitant to announce publicly about the loss of famous works of art and would stay silent out of embarrassment. Now, as cultural robberies are more reported on, the keeping and selling of stolen art is risky business for any lawbreaker.

“If you steal a famous painting, it has to remain intact or it becomes valueless, and you have to conceive of a scheme to keep it in hiding, perhaps by moving it among dangerous individuals,” said Marinello. “And you’re constantly exposed to the danger of an partner informing authorities to cash in a reward.”

For comparable factors, an investigator said it was vanishingly unlikely that the robbery had been ordered. “Commissioned theft is something from Hollywood movies,” he said. “No one would handle these items. It’s all around the world and in all the media. If you buy this, if you get caught, you go to jail. You can't display it to your acquaintances, you cannot bequeath it to your family.”

Altering stolen works by melting down or re-cutting does reduce the value. When it comes to gems, it also comes with significant danger because modern methods give gems a larger and brighter appearance, and older-style stones would either draw unwanted attention or reduce value for a coverup.

Importantly, however, dismantling or reshaping removes the proof of the crime. “My guess is that the robbers will try to take the items to places with gem knowledge like a country, another nation or even as close as Antwerp, and locate an expert to remove the stones,” suggested Marinello.

The heist at the Louvre has already raised questions about security measures at the museum, with a leaked official review expected to be published soon criticising “considerable” and “persistent” slow progress in updating systems and noting that surveillance were lacking in multiple areas. But security experts say displaying precious items in historic buildings with a constant flow of guests comes with dangers that are not possible to eliminate completely.

“Older structures are more difficult to protect,” explained Erin Thompson. “They often have large accessible windows that makes it easy for thieves to escape, and there may be preservation laws in place that mean you are unable to install them with proper bulletproof glass.”

The best security systems for structures should be designed “like a fortress”, noted a security advisor. “There should be multiple levels to deter attackers.”

Contemporary structures are fitted with advanced surveillance systems or in-built seismic detectors that alert about a smashed window in real time, but old museums may be hesitant to alter their exteriors. Laser scanners can be difficult to install to decorated surfaces. Motion and sound detectors may also have to be turned off during the day as hordes of visitors stomp through a museum.

The timing of the robbery, which took place between morning hours in Paris, was common of recent thefts, Stürmann said. “It's logical why robberies tend to happen at either start or end of day. Frequently when guards change their shifts and before the museum is full of visitors who effectively act as additional security staff.”

Advances in technology may have thrown up new gadgets that can notify more rapidly and efficiently, but it has also given thieves new tools with which to circumvent protections. In the city, the robbers reached the museum’s first-floor window with a vehicle-mounted ladder and breached a window with a battery-powered disc cutter.

Elaine Sciolino said the conversation in the country about the historic building had mostly focused on visitor management in the past decade, and less on protection.

The institution has an in-house brigade of about 50 permanent emergency personnel, but their purpose is mainly to safeguard the collection from blazes and water damage. “There is no quick reaction team,” Sciolino said. “In the end, the security of the Louvre all comes down to government support and money, and at present France lacks sufficient resources.”