Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.

Major Obstacles in the Selection Process

Several members on the party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to head off any future leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of sources also shared fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.