A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
