Daily Homicides in Mexico Decline Thirty-Seven Percent Under the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Government Statistics

The average number of per-day murders each month in the country has fallen by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to fresh administrative statistics. However, security experts have cautioned that murder numbers may not signal improved national stability.

Notable Decline in Per-Day Averages

There was an mean of almost 55 killings a day in the month of November as opposed to nearly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in September. This data was provided by the head of the nation's federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that we have seen over these past months is extremely important,” the President stated, adding that the previous month the least figure of murders were documented for any single November in the last decade.

Historical Context and Government Strategy

Intense cartel infighting, alongside the government’s highly militarised operations to take on the cartels, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in recent years. The figure peaked at a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's national statistics office.

That meant Mexico a murder figure more than four times greater than the United States. Since then, killings have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has credited her national security strategy for an apparently more pronounced reduction in homicides this year.

At a news briefing in August, the President declared: “We have a plan, there is monitoring of the plan, and there is specific monitoring town by town in some cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The main elements of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigation capabilities.
• Increased coordination between various departments.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

Nevertheless, public safety researchers warned that using murder data to draw a conclusion of peace was problematic. This is notably true in light of the rise in different crimes such as forced disappearances.

“That would be positive news if this was a reduction, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the homicide data and think: ‘Alright, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican cartels. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

Per the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year versus the same timeframe last year. However, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some regions have increased by up to 200%.

“Data on murders is not reliable for estimating the situation of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who lack the resources or the desire to correctly recognize and categorize remains. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that using monthly means of everyday killings was similarly concerning because it could hide periods when there were particularly elevated numbers of killings.

“Employing the per-day mean renders surges of violence unseen,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Success

An area where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its security strategy is on arrests and seizures. Almost 40,000 individuals were apprehended between last October and November 2025 for high-impact crimes, according to official data. More than 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Anger

But despite these actions, Mexico remains beset by extreme bloodshed, with multiple regions in the throes of cartel-related conflict. In the previous month there was a prominent assassination of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders assassinated in the last 12 months.

Weeks later, thousands of youth took to the streets in Mexico City and across the country to show their anger at graft and drug violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a way to construct a narrative of safety. Politically it’s very effective, socially it’s highly problematic,” the analyst concluded.