🔗 Share this article

Well. On one hand, Australia's protracted campaign to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the rights to host the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of people to the South Australian capital next November.

That's not happening. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the climate carnival could help speed up the country's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the bid to be approved. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to stories in the Australian and international media saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.

There is little sign Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a priority. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to look at it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the best result available.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the conference leader, host and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", managing almost all nations on the matters that the countries actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively combat the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. The details of the deal had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the global community as having been determined on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to encourage them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the Australian bid.

But, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not only by Australians.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no major power with the influence to stare down the oil producers that offered the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered close to the Russian leader. Some countries worried about a summit obstructed from the top if his administration led the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to host an underprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A path through was necessary. International frameworks is flawed and often disconcerting to observe, but global cooperation has empirically had an impact in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Despite understandable criticism of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been asked to lead discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and veteran observers at climate talks say it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president directing proceedings who can understand, forge agreement and achieve an ambitious outcome. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, civil society is essential at environmental summits. How, if anything, can the federal administration do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the host government?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this deal appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. It's worth a try.